“In 2026, luxury will grow, driven by the US and the Middle East”
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“Luxury is going through a phase of normalization after the post-pandemic boom, with a market worth €1.44 trillion, according to estimates by Bain & Company, despite more selective consumption and the lack of responsiveness of Chinese consumers,” said Matteo Lunelli, president of the Altagamma foundation, the association that brings together the leading brands of Italian excellence.
This was the claim that opened the 24th Altagamma Observatory, specifying that experiential luxury is growing, particularly that linked to well-being and longevity, while aspirational demand is suffering, amplified by geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, and rising prices.
The positive signs from the last six months point to a positive medium- to long-term trend, where quality, product, and customer experience will once again take center stage, as Lunelli anticipated.
The consensus of analysts (about twenty) compiled by Altagamma and illustrated by the foundation’s general manager, Stefania Lazzaroni, estimates average growth of just over 4% for 2026 for the personal luxury goods market, driven by the Middle East (+6%), North America (+4.5%), and Latin America (+4.5%). Europe is expected to grow by +3.5%, while Asia and China (where perhaps the worst is over) are expected to grow by +4%.
In terms of distribution channels, physical retail is expected to grow by +5% next year, online sales by +4%, while wholesale should grow by +2% (+1% for digital sales).
In terms of product categories, jewelry is the favorite, with analysts predicting annual growth of 5%. These are, in fact, safe-haven assets and investments, given that gold prices have doubled in five years.
Clothing and leather goods follow, both expected to grow by 4%, as do cosmetics. Footwear sales are expected to increase by 3%, while watches are expected to grow by 2.5% after normalisation in 2025.
On average, analysts expect organic revenues for personal luxury goods companies to rise by 6-7% and EBITDA to increase by 5% compared to 2025.
Performance will be supported by cost optimization activities and the resilience of the US, European, and Middle Eastern markets. The recovery of Chinese consumer confidence could be the turning point. Exchange rate fluctuations, on the other hand, represent a risk factor (see the 10% depreciation of the dollar).
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