The new year is upon us and there are a number of trends both in the luxury travel space as well as in the points and miles space. Here’s what to expect in 2025.
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I recently began writing a column for a travel industry outlet focused on luxury travel agencies, Pomp & Circumstance. In the premier post, I outlined luxury travel trends for 2025, some of which I will reiterate here.
It was less than a decade ago that American Airlines was still operating “angled flat” business class seats in a 2-3-2 configuration on long haul flights to Asia, I have photos. Direct aisle access became the minimum as business class replaced first class on most carriers and a fully flat bed was the new standard. Now, closed-door suites have become a requirement for modern business class. The doors don’t go to the ceiling, there’s not total privacy, but it does keep the clatter of carts and passersby away from passengers heads as they try to sleep.
United Polaris elevated the business class lounge standard years ago, Delta’s new installations at LAX, JFK, and soon in Salt Lake City will not only make lounges a must-see attraction, but enhance the overall travel experience.
“Delta has a completely separate check-in area for Delta One customers, with its own private security checkpoint. From there, you board a private elevator that takes you directly to the Delta One Lounge. The entire experience from curb to lounge took less than five minutes.” – Inc.
American Airlines seems like the next candidate to revolutionize the lounge experience and following Delta’s model that looks beyond the traditional concept is one that it could enact in Dallas, or Miami to start.
JetBlue announced its own lounges as well, if it wants to compete it will have to elevate against competitors.
The Standard joined Hyatt this year, Mr. & Mrs. Smith replaced SLH who moved onto Hilton, and Tablet (which I have covered here) along with Michelin’s own hotel guide will continue to move guests past the classic business hotel and into boutique properties. This is my favorite trend so far in the hotel space. It gives small operators a chance to be noticed on a larger scale and grow, but it also offers loyal travelers a chance to find something apart from the same old, same old.
Antarctica, which has been successful for luxury expeditions in the past has grown beyond the supply with almost every sailing selling out in the 2024/2025 season across vendors. Next year’s 2025/26 season is pacing ahead of this year and will likely sell out before May. The Arctic ships are filling up too and the Kimberleys (northwest Australia) has filled too. Guests will want new adventures and there are periods for repositioning that will open up new opportunities. It will be exciting to watch for the announcements of new destinations and opportunities to expand exploration.
From a profitability standpoint, the tail now wags the dog with loyalty programs being the largest contributor to net profit for major carriers. How will things change in the new year?
United has one foot in and one foot out of the fully revenue-based loyalty program concept. American is proving the model works for the carrier and its partners and in 2025, I predict that United will move to award loyalty based on the total financial relationship it has with its travelers/customer base.
American Express led the way with its Centurion Lounges and has already gotten to the point where it’s remodeling or expanding existing spaces. Chase announced its own Sapphire lounges and the preliminary iterations have been incredible. Capital One has had a still slower approach to opening its lounges but is in the game. Will Citi join the fray? Perhaps Wells Fargo if they want to be serious about the premium market will add one of their own too.
In the case of Citi, its new exclusive with American Airlines (after Barclays left the equation) could lend to an easy partnership with the carrier to open its own spaces. Bank of America might also enter the conversation.
Southwest Airlines has already departed from its prior self and has entered a more network carrier model. Its partnership with IcelandAir will be as much as it chooses to make of it. If Southwest starts to promote destinations in Europe, align positioning flights from key markets, and really step into the partnership. For what it’s worth, Southwest had already started its transformation years ago seeking more business flyers and moving into traditional large market airports. With assigned seating, elite, and fare segmentation there’s room to grow even more unique in the loyalty space. This could be a big year for Rapid Rewards to start truly challenging the flag network carriers on the loyalty program front, but it’s going to need to fully transition and that could be harder for an airline that has faced investor pressure and a changing C-suite.
Outside of luxury and loyalty, there could be some big changes in 2025.
Spirit simply can’t go on as it is now. It will either need to fold into a new airline or be sold for parts. And the parts are really attractive to airlines right now as it continues to take new deliveries of highly desirable A320 family aircraft. The first quarter of the new administration will tell the story of how Spirit will move on but it won’t be able to continue as it is now.
JetBlue already tried to form a regional alliance with American Airlines (and may again in the new year, again due to the incoming administration that previously approved the tie-up.) But it could add value to a number of oneworld airlines as it tries to grow through its move to premium with non-Mint first class and continued efforts for trans-Atlantic flights where oneworld does well.
Breeze is looking to start flights to Hawaii, England, and Ireland with an A220. The maximum range is 3,400-3,600 nautical miles but that doesn’t leave much room for contingency and limits the market for departures. Boston, and New York to Dublin are feasible but London puts a strain on the aircraft’s range. Washington Dulles is likely too far without some adjustments to the aircraft, and Buffalo doesn’t face the competition from Boston or New York but again pushes the range some.
Regardless, if Breeze begins operations with A220s that could change the trans-Atlantic market with much smaller seating capacity and operating thinner markets more affordably than larger variants and without the wait for new Boeing and Airbus aircraft which face delays and setbacks. The 757 did this once before, freeing airlines from massive equipment that made smaller markets untenable. If Breeze can make the A220 work, it could open up a new slate of routes and opportunity for new operators.
What are your predictions for 2025?
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